Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
