Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
